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Updates:
Overhauling site.  Interactive visualizations, access to historic data, customize prediction models, and matchup analyzer.  

Visuals and models will be powered by Bokeh & Python

-11/28/2016

Welcome to ScullyTotals which consistently beats Vegas Odds
The predictions focus on total game points (aka totals) and stem from a proprietary computer program that downloads weekly team statistics, runs multivariate regressions, and outputs recommendations where forecasted points differ greatly from the sportsbooks’.

Simple-Model1

NFL betting system

NFL Betting System. ScullyTotals offers a proprietary algorithm to bet against Vegas Overs / Totals.

Summary of Past Years:
Summary-going-into-20141

 

ScullyTotals is based on a statistical model that incorporates 42 variables for each weekly NFL game. The algorithm relies on five years of data from 2004 through 2008 to then compare today’s matchups versus historical trends. Emphasis is placed on rushing efficiency, passing efficiency, QB rating, average points, first down proficiency, and turnovers.

With each forecast, several filters are applied to identify the most favorable outcomes that make money. ScullyTotals does this by only outputting betting advice where “value” exists with oddsmaker lines. In other words, if Vegas believes the total predicted point is 45 yet the algorithm says 55 then there is a significant difference and the computer program will make a bet recommendation.